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Forum:2014-15 South Pacific cyclone season
Related pages: *2014-15 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season (Betting pools) *2014-15 Australian Region cyclone season (Betting pools) Future Start Starting with this new season, the SHem will be split into 3 forums for each basin. Betting pools for this basin are here. Ryan1000 21:02, January 18, 2014 (UTC) December 03F.NONAME Tropical Depression 03F Where has everyone been? We have missed quite a bit of activity in the SPAC, although they were some weak depressions. There are two active right now; the stronger is located roughly 400 mi NW of Bora Bora and is under a TCFA. EIS and SSMIS imagery show a consolidating LLCC with persistent deep convection in the NE quadrant. While 03F is under 30C SST's and good poleward outflow, it is under 20 to 30 knots of moderate VWS. However, this is not stopping NAVGEM from showing a rapidly developing TC within the next day. Current winds are at 25 knots (30 mph) (10-min), with a pressure of 1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg) per RSMC Nadi. Also, notice the contrast of opinion - the JTWC gives a high chance of formation in the next 24 hours, while RSMC Nadi gives a low change. Well, doesn't this look like a weak TS? We'll see what goes down in the next couple of days here... AndrewTalk To Me 14:20, December 25, 2014 (UTC) :03F has continued moving SSE. While its LLCC is still poorly defined, flaring deep convection is starting to obstruct the center, albeit being sheared from the east. With moderate VWS of 15 to 20 knots and a strong poleward channel providing ventilation, the depression still has a chance at becoming tropical. Also, RSMC Nadi has lowered 03F's pressure to 998 mbar (hPa; 29.47 inHg) again, which could mean it is going to get named. Nevertheless, the system remains under a JTWC TCFA. AndrewTalk To Me 00:38, December 26, 2014 (UTC) ::03F has continued its motion, with a pressure of 999 mbar (hPa; 29.50 inHg). Now some 400 mi WSW of Bora Bora, MSI shows much weakened convection and a now-fully exposed LLCC, and the system has drifted into very strong VWS in excess of 30 knots. Combined with decreasing SST's, and despite RSMC Nadi continuing to state that models are forecasting development, the JTWC has quickly lowered 03F's probability of development to low in the next 24 hours. Well, there went another chance of a named storm... AndrewTalk To Me 14:05, December 26, 2014 (UTC) Remnants of 03F RSMC Nadi stopped issuing advisories on 03F a while ago. The JTWC currently has a suspect SPAC system in their TWA, but I am not sure if it pertains to ex-03F or 05F. AndrewTalk To Me 22:07, December 27, 2014 (UTC) 05F.NONAME Tropical Disturbance 05F Another tropical disturbance is located some 300 miles NW of American Samoa. Although it is located over 30C SST's as well and has favorable poleward outflow, its LLCC is completely exposed due to moderate VWS in the vicinity. Winds are estimated to be at 15 to 20 knots (15 to 25 mph) (1-minute), with a pressure of 1001 mbar (hPa; 29.56 inHg) per RSMC Nadi. While the latter has noted global models picking up on the system, both agencies report a low chance of formation in the next 24 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 14:20, December 25, 2014 (UTC) : It probably won't develop, SPac is sleeping right now. We'll probably have another late start this season, not as late as the 2011-12 season but I don't expect a NS until sometime next week. Ryan1000 17:20, December 25, 2014 (UTC) ::05F's pressure has dropped to 1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg) and remains in a moderate shear environment. Ryan, some models are showing slight intensification as the disturbance moves eastwards, but it will not become extremely strong. I would like it if either 03F or 05F gives us our first named storm. AndrewTalk To Me 00:30, December 26, 2014 (UTC) :::RSMC Nadi has raised 05F's pressure up again to 1001 mbar (hPa; 29.56 inHg), and still reports similar conditions as before. However, the JTWC has declared the system dissipated, perhaps signaling its chance to get named is done. AndrewTalk To Me 14:00, December 26, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Depression 05F Surprisingly, the FMS (RSMC Nadi) have upgraded 05F to a depression with unspecified winds and a pressure of 1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg). Roughly 90 mi NE of Pago Pago, the JTWC notes a patch of disorganized convection in the eastern quadrant of an LLCC being fueled by NNW flow from a shortwave trough (I think). Although VWS is being offset by divergent outflow and SST's are around 30C, both the JTWC and FMS give 05F a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. However, given the excitement of some model forecast, I still hope this depression has a shot at getting named. AndrewTalk To Me 22:07, December 27, 2014 (UTC) :Little new from the FMS. However, the JTWC has noticed that 05F is effectively a trough now, with no LLCC and convection incredibly disorganized. Data from Pago Pago does not support TC development whatsoever. Although VWS is still being offset, the collapse of the depression's structure means both agencies still report the same chances of formation. I highly doubt this will be classified in the near future. AndrewTalk To Me 14:09, December 28, 2014 (UTC) ::The FMS has raised 05F's pressure back up to 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg), while still not reporting any wind differences. Despite good outflow, SST's still around 30C, and models continuing to insist intensification, the shear around the system is causing the RSMC to continue giving 05F a low chance of formation in the next 24 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 03:43, December 29, 2014 (UTC) :::The JTWC no longer considers 05F a suspect tropical cyclone. As a result, we may end up with a re-03F - a depression which had potential, but could not fully utilize it. Hopefully, our first named storm can come soon! AndrewTalk To Me 18:27, December 29, 2014 (UTC) 06F.NIKO Tropical Depression 06F Well out to sea and heading there. Hopefully it becomes our first named storm of the South Pacific, they're a bit behind schedule for their first named storm of the season. Ryan1000 21:55, January 20, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Niko First named storm of the season. Currently passing through French Polynesia as a category 1 TC (AUS scale), and expected to strengthen a little more as it heads southeast out to sea (or technically, over the islands). Ryan1000 01:50, January 22, 2015 (UTC) :No one has been posting lately, eh? Well, Niko became a Category 2 in the past couple of days, but the JTWC notes its LLCC is exposed and has an overall elongated structure devoid of convection. Since the storm is situated in some 30 to 40 knots of powerful VWS, in addition to SST's below 25C, rapid weakening is expected from Niko before dissipating in the next 24 hours. Scatterometer data supports winds of 40 knots (45 mph) (1-min) from the JTWC and a pressure of 994 mbar (hPa; 29.35 inHg) from TCWC Wellington; Niko has left RSMC Nadi's AOR. Well, Niko made a small yet noticeable breakthrough on the SPAC named storm drought, and fortunately was not too severe. Also, on a side note, what happened to the name Nute? That is what Niko should have been named... AndrewTalk To Me 00:26, January 24, 2015 (UTC) ::Actually decided to post on this storm since I've actually still been lingering on this wiki since I've left (so you guys are not alone), but I'm glad that there's a new system in the SPac. I also really wonder what happened to the name "Nute", I think it might have been removed due to political sensitivities or something like that. Anyways, it became a Category 2 (not bad, not bad) but that's still a little bit weak (The Cat. 5's in the basin are much more epic). I'm also not that interested in tracking SHem storms, so I'm not going to post that much at all from now till May. --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 04:44, January 24, 2015 (UTC) Remnants of Niko Niko has been ripped apart by shear. All convection is displaced to its southern quadrant, and the JTWC has consequently stopped issuing advisories. Also, according to the TCWC Wellington marine outlook, ex-Niko has a pressure of 999 mbar (hPa; 29.50 inHg). So long, Niko! AndrewTalk To Me 14:36, January 24, 2015 (UTC) 09F.OLA Tropical Cyclone Ola Guess no one's interested in SHem right now...either way, this one is heading away from Australia, into a few islands here and there in the SPac. Ryan1000 07:06, February 1, 2015 (UTC) 11F.PAM Severe Tropical Cyclone Pam Don't know where everyone is, but this is a huge storm north of the islands of Vanuatu and heading south. Even though it's only a cat 1 now (75 mph 10-min sustained, 90 mph 1-min), it's already forecast to become a category 5 monster. This doesn't look too good... Ryan1000 15:33, March 10, 2015 (UTC) :lol, I was in the other forum (TIL this exists now). Expected to reach 140 kt (JTWC), <900 mbar according to GFS.--Isaac829 19:44, March 10, 2015 (UTC) Now 100 mph, 950 mbars (120 1-min). This thing is taking off fast, I would be surprised if it's not a cat 5 by sometime tomorrow (gah, forgot to log in). Ryan1000 10:45, March 11, 2015 (UTC) : Now a strong cat 4 (120 mph, 920 mbars 10-min, 140/920 1-min). Pam should be a cat 5 cyclone anytime soon, and evacuations for Vanuatu are already under way. Ryan1000 11:48, March 12, 2015 (UTC) :::JTWC has this at 140 knts 1 min. Barring down at Vanuatu. Wow. Props to the GFS which showed this 2 weeks out. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 00:42, March 13, 2015 (UTC) :::::145 mph 10-min winds and 910 mbars make Pam one of the strongest storms to exist in the SPac, and one of only 10 cat 5's to form in this region since 1970. The southern islands of Vanuatu are gonna get slamed by this thing. 'Ryan1000' 02:16, March 13, 2015 (UTC) ::::::Dang, this system is really intense and has brought me back to this wiki. I wouldn't be surprised if Vanuatu gets really devastated by this thing, and the fact that the storm's very intense makes me worry more about that island chain! Let's hope damages and deaths will be less than what I think could happen! :O --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 04:54, March 14, 2015 (UTC) ::::::::It seems Pam has weakened to a category 3 storm now, but is still heading south, towards northern New Zealand. They'll probably get some impacts from Pam, but the worst probably came in Vanuatu. With 155 mph 10-minute winds and a pressure plunging down to 896 mbars at its peak, Cyclone Pam is one of the strongest Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones on record, and the strongest in the South Pacific since Zoe in 2002 (890 mbars). 'Ryan1000' 06:36, March 15, 2015 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Pam Pam may be gone now, but not before it killed several people across Vanuatu and became possibly the costliest South Pacific cyclone on record. This storm really made it's mark on the archipelago, a mark that won't be forgotten for a very long time. 'Ryan1000' 21:33, March 16, 2015 (UTC) :Now near Chile.--Isaac829 02:22, March 23, 2015 (UTC) 12F.REUBEN Tropical Cyclone Reuben After Pam, we have a smaller SPac storm heading out to sea, this one is nowhere near as strong as Pam nor will it cause as much impacts as Pam did. 'Ryan1000' 19:10, March 23, 2015 (UTC) Post-tropical cyclone Reuben ...and it's gone.--Isaac829 02:27, March 26, 2015 (UTC) 15F.SOLO Tropical Cyclone Solo Not too powerful, but Solo formed a few days back...guess no one got to it. Anyways, it's currently passing over New Caledonia as a moderately strong TS (65 mph winds) 'Ryan1000' 21:11, April 11, 2015 (UTC) 25P.NONAME guess what. JTWC starts tracking an disorganized cluster of thunderstorms. GFS and CMC develop it. could cross year (something not seen since 1962-63 season). totally destructive|get hyper! 19:45, June 26, 2015 (UTC) 17F.RAQUEL Tropical Disturbance 17F oh well... Fiji tracking an new disturbance with no specified winds. could become Tuni/Alu if it does not cross basin. JTWC (still) tracking it as 90P.totally destructive|get hyper! 18:22, June 28, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Depression 17F LOL. now a TD per Fiji standards. specified no winds so far. totally destructive|get hyper! 15:32, June 29, 2015 (UTC) : This is really unusual, to see a storm form here at this time of year (this is roughly the equivalent of Zeta's time in the Atlantic in 2005-2006). It crossed into the Australian Region today, but it's forecast to cross back into the SPac later and strengthen whle moving over the Solomon Islands. Let's hope it doesn't get too bad. 'Ryan1000' 14:26, June 30, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Raquel It didn't get named until it crossed into the Australian Region, but it still formed here. Currently over the Solomon Islands, bringing heavy rainfall. Hopefully nothing becomes too severe for them. 'Ryan1000' 20:23, July 1, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Depression 25P OH MY GOD... (no comment) totally destructive|get hyper! 15:11, June 30, 2015 (UTC) :In a super El Nino, this is no surprise. Look at Keli 97. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 18:53, June 30, 2015 (UTC) :moved out of basin. see this totally destructive|get hyper! 19:11, June 30, 2015 (UTC)